If your air conditioner or furnace struggled to keep up in 2025, you may already be wondering what it’s going to cost to replace your HVAC system in 2026. Rising utility bills, uncomfortable rooms, or a technician’s warning that your system is near the end of its life can all be signs that replacement is on the horizon.
At Yarbrough & Sons Heating, Cooling & Plumbing, we’ve crunched the numbers from over 250 system replacements in 2025 to give Oklahoma homeowners a clear, transparent picture of what to expect in 2026.
2025 HVAC Replacement Costs in Oklahoma
- Average replacement cost (2025): $13,450
- Median replacement cost (2025): $12,860
The average can swing higher or lower depending on unusually large or small projects. That’s why the median value often gives a better picture of what a typical homeowner can expect.
What’s Driving Prices Up in 2026?
Several economic factors are pushing HVAC costs higher industry-wide:
- Material price increases: Expect a 3–6% rise in the cost of equipment (condensers, heat pumps, furnaces) as well as supporting materials like line sets and pads.
- Insurance hikes: Business insurance is rising even faster than homeowner’s insurance, which impacts overall operating costs.
- Labor shortages: For every five skilled tradespeople who retire, only one new worker enters the field. That shortage is driving wages higher, especially in HVAC and plumbing.
At Yarbrough & Sons, we take pride in staying top of market for pay and benefits. That ensures our technicians are highly trained and ready to serve you during the hottest and coldest months of the year.
Forecasted HVAC Replacement Costs for 2026
Based on projected increases, here’s where we expect pricing to land in 2026:
- Median replacement cost: Around $13,350
- Average replacement cost: Around $14,500
That’s an increase of about $1,000–$1,200 per system compared to 2025.
How to Save on HVAC Replacement
The good news is you can take steps now to offset rising costs:
- Replace before the new year
Prices will only climb in 2026. If you have a major repair pending or your system barely made it through summer, getting a quote now will save you money. - Take advantage of seasonal discounts
During the fall and winter, we offer up to 20% off new systems. A $12,000 system can look more like $10,500 with these savings. - Use financing to spread out costs
We offer low-monthly-payment options, sometimes as low as $95 per month, so you don’t have to sacrifice comfort going into the holidays. - Stay on top of maintenance
Regular tune-ups extend the life of your system, reduce utility bills, and may delay replacement for a few more years.
Don’t Wait Until the Holidays to Replace
The worst time for an HVAC system to fail is during the holiday season when expenses are already high. A proactive replacement now means a warm, comfortable home for your family gatherings - and no interruptions when grandma needs to bake her famous peanut butter pie.
If you’re in the Oklahoma City metro, Yarbrough & Sons is ready to provide transparent pricing, expert installation, and financing that fits your budget.
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Prices and examples reflect the recording, not a current quote. Confirm today's scope, availability, and terms with our team.
HVAC Average Price Range by Tonnage
- 1.5 Ton: $8,000 – $16,000
- 2 Ton: $8,000 – $16,000
- 2.5 Ton: $8,500 – $18,000
- 3 Ton: $9,000 – $18,500
- 3.5 Ton: $9,500 – $21,000
- 4 Ton: $10,500 – $21,500
- 5 Ton: $11,500 – $23,000
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About Yarbrough & Sons Heating, Cooling & Plumbing
Serving Oklahoma City and surrounding areas since 1988, we provide expert HVAC maintenance, repair, and replacement services with a commitment to quality and community care.
Locations:
- 122 S Main Ave, Blanchard, OK 73010
- 3601 S Broadway #300, Edmond, OK 73013
📞 (405) 960-3470 | 🌐 yarbroughandsons.com