Why HVAC Prices Are Rising in 2025

TL;DR: With new government regulations phasing down R410A refrigerant, HVAC systems using this refrigerant are being discontinued, and new, more eco-friendly equipment (with A2L refrigerant) is coming. These changes are leading to price increases—around 10–15% for new systems. If you’re thinking about replacing your HVAC, it’s best to act before the end of the year to avoid higher costs and limited availability.

As we approach the end of the year, significant changes are coming to the HVAC industry, including new government mandates, the phase-down of current refrigerants, and price increases for new equipment. If you’re considering replacing your HVAC system, now might be the best time to take action. Here’s why HVAC prices are rising in 2025.

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Upcoming Price Increases in HVAC Systems

With new equipment hitting the market, the price of HVAC systems is expected to increase by 10-15%. This means that a system currently costing $10,000 could jump to $11,500 or even $12,000 next year. Waiting to replace your system could result in paying thousands more. For example, on a recent commercial project, an HVAC system priced at $15,000 was expected to increase by $2,000 due to these impending changes. These points highlight why HVAC prices are rising in 2025.

Why are prices increasing?

1. New refrigerant requirements: The industry is transitioning from the widely used R410A refrigerant to a more environmentally friendly option, A2L (R454B). As a result, manufacturers are phasing out production of equipment using R410A, which is leading to price hikes on the remaining stock and new equipment featuring the updated refrigerant. This explains a major part of why HVAC prices are rising in 2025.
2. Higher production costs: The new refrigerant, while greener and more efficient, brings higher production and installation costs, contributing to overall price increases in HVAC systems.

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The Phase-Down of R410A: What You Need to Know

Currently, most HVAC systems use R410A refrigerant. However, by the end of this year, manufacturers will stop producing units that use this refrigerant due to environmental regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The industry is moving to the newer A2L refrigerant, which is designed to be more eco-friendly. This shift is a key reason why HVAC prices are rising in 2025.

If your system is still using R410A and you’re thinking about replacing it, now may be the time to act. Manufacturers can only sell remaining R410A units until the end of the year. After that, all new systems will use A2L, which may come with an initial learning curve for installers and technicians.

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Real Cost Impacts of Waiting

As Darren Yarbrough, from Yarbrough & Sons Heating and Air, explained in a recent discussion, the price increases we’re expecting could make waiting a costly decision. He noted:

• A $10,000 system could rise by 10% to 15%, meaning an additional $1,000 to $1,500.
• Commercial projects priced at $15,000 could see a $2,000 increase.

These numbers might seem small in the grand scheme of things, but if your system is already nearing the end of its lifespan or is inefficient, replacing it now could save you thousands in the long run. Hence, understanding why HVAC prices are rising in 2025 is crucial for planning your next steps.

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Why Should You Replace Your System Now?

1. Avoid Price Hikes: With equipment costs going up as we transition to A2L refrigerants, buying now means locking in lower prices. As mentioned earlier, even a 10% increase on a $10,000 system translates to an extra $1,000.
2. Phase-Out of R410A Systems: If your current system is 410A and you wait to replace it until next year, the new system will use the A2L refrigerant. This could bring additional challenges and unknowns during the initial rollout of A2L. This uncertainty is another reason why HVAC prices are rising in 2025.
3. Efficiency & Reliability: Newer HVAC systems are generally more energy-efficient, offering potential savings on your energy bills. Upgrading now also means better reliability, especially if your current system is already experiencing issues like refrigerant leaks or inefficiency.
4. No Surprises with New Refrigerants: While the new A2L refrigerants promise similar efficiency and performance, Darren noted that their team hasn’t installed a system using the new refrigerant yet, so it’s unclear what potential issues could arise. By sticking with R410A systems available now, you’ll be opting for a tried-and-true solution.

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What You Can Do Now

If you’re considering replacing your HVAC system, it’s important to weigh the costs and benefits. With the upcoming price increases and the phase-down of R410A equipment, acting now could save you money, prevent future headaches, and ensure your home stays comfortable with reliable and efficient heating and cooling. Now, understanding why HVAC prices are rising in 2025, you can make an informed decision.

At Yarbrough & Sons, we specialize in providing HVAC solutions tailored to your needs. If your system is aging or inefficient, our team is here to help you navigate the changes in the industry and find the best solution for your home or commercial property.

Need an Estimate? Contact us today to schedule an inspection or discuss your HVAC options before the end-of-year changes take effect.

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Average Costs for HVAC in 2024:  

The pricing chart below encompasses the price for our three most common types of HVAC system. 

HVAC Average Price Range by Tonnage: 

• 1.5 Ton: $8,000 – $16,000 
• 2 Ton: $8,000 – $16,000 
• 2.5 Ton: $8,500 – $18,000 
• 3 Ton: $9,000 – $18,500 
• 3.5 Ton: $9,500 – $21,000 
• 4 Ton: $10,500 – $21,500 
• 5 Ton: $11,500 – $23,000 

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About Yarbrough & Sons Heating, Cooling & Plumbing:

Yarbrough & Sons has been serving Oklahoma City since 1988, providing top-notch home comfort solutions. With over 450 years of combined experience, our family-owned business is dedicated to quality, comfort, and caring for our community. Trust us for all your HVAC needs. Yarbrough & Sons understands why HVAC prices are rising in 2025 and can help you plan accordingly.